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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.