Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
